The US is back again to lead the fight against climate change — ‘Make the climate great again’. In a two-day virtual summit held on April 22 and 23, the US President Joe Biden urged 40 world leaders to commit to cutting emissions. But, how credible is America’s concern on climate crises considering his predecessor had pulled out the US from the Paris agreement?
How it all began
To understand the global climate change divide, we have to go back to the 18th century, when the Great Britain was ramping up manufacturing, and had discovered an endless supply of cheap energy, something that burnt better than wood, which was coal. This discovery was a game changer. It kicked off the Industrial Revolution. A new age in the story of civilisation dawned with this revolution. But only a handsome few countries in the west could read the benefit of this fuel. They used this fossil fuel to its best capacity and developed their economies. They also emitted a lot of greenhouse gases. Over the decades, these gases changed the climate. The rest of the world started producing the fuel too and the climate change became bigger, and life threatening.
Now the world needs to clean up, but the responsibility to cleanup is not equally shared. The blame is largely being put on the developing world. The western countries, that have historically, morally, politically, and financially been responsible for the climate change, are now painting themselves green.
Industrialisation in the world grew at the ecological expense of the developing countries. When the western countries became rich, they very smartly de-industrialised and exported their carbon emissions. They created a system that continues to absolve them of all responsibilities and whitewashes their role in climate change. The argument is quite simple. Everyone should do their bit for climate change, but as the developed world caused more damage, they should pay up and not preach.
Since the industrial revolution, the developed countries have been responsible for most of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. China and the US are the largest polluters and together they account for almost half of the world’s emissions. Then comes the European Union. Compare this with India’s share of global emissions at a mere 3 percent, Africa’s another 3 percent, and South America too at 3 percent.
Let us also compare the present with the past. Today, the UK is responsible for 1% of the world’s emissions, but if we consider Britain’s historical responsibility, the figure rises to 5%. Same is the case with Germany. Today, it produces 2% of the world’s emissions but if the past account is added, then Germany is responsible for 6%. What does this tell you? It is the west that produced the lion’s share of greenhouse gases, and now it is blaming the developing world for climate change.
Emission Transfer
Some countries became rich by driving the world towards climate change, and now they have left the poor countries to face the consequences and the blame for this phenomenon. In the name of globalisation, the developed countries outsourced manufacturing — the dirty business — to the developing world. This trend started in the early 2000s. It is called as emission transfer. It grew at a steady pace of nearly 11% every year. Several factories making steel, computers, electronics, apparel and furniture shut down in the west and opened in Asia. They got their goods, and we got their pollution.
Today, the same countries preach us on climate action, and we wilfully take their advice. Now, one may wonder how did the west get away with all of this? The answer is simple: like they always do — with money. Even today, when it comes to declaring climate target, some countries do not count their outsourced emission.
Outsourced emission
What is outsourced emission? For example, if you are using steel made in another country, are you responsible for the pollution it causes? Or will you put the blame on the country that produces that steel? Effectively, you have outsourced the emission and the blame.
If you compare a graph as to how much carbon dioxide the United States is emitting through imported goods verses how much it is emitting through its domestic production, the consumption-based emissions are way higher than the production-based emissions, the difference to almost 8%. Compare this to India, it is just the opposite. The consumption-based emissions are considerably lower than what it is being produced. Simply put, it means that the west is polluting more than what it acknowledges. The developing nations are bearing the burden. The west is hiding its emission because it wants to preach.
The Paris Agreement
Washington has urged the world leaders to update their respective targets under the Paris Agreement. The US wants other countries to spell out how will they curb climate change. But what will America itself do? Here is Biden’s plan:
1. Produce pollution-free electricity
2. Manufacture zero-emission vehicles
3. Halt new leases for oil and gas production
4. The goal is to cut to emissions by half by 2030.
5. Have net-zero emissions by 2050.
The US expects most of the world to follow this plan.
What about India? When John Kerry, America’s climate czar, visited New Delhi recently, he said: “The United States is not looking to get India to make ‘Net-Zero’ pledge. That was my message to the Prime Minister.”
The European Union has pledged to cut greenhouse effect emissions by almost 55% by 2030. Britain has gone even a step further, vowing a 78% cut by 2035. We must applaud their targets and hope they will not be reversed by their future administration. This has happened before when Trump administration pulled out the US from Paris Agreement. What is the guarantee that it will not happen again and where will it leave those countries that are using American investments to achieve their goals?
Challenges Ahead
These are not the only challenges. One cannot set the same deadline and same targets for every country. Every society needs its own time to adopt. Some might take decades. This is particularly true where countries are still closely tied to fossil fuel economy. Expecting them to change overnight without financial incentives and transfer of latest technology, is a self-defeating strategy.
Then we have the pandemic which has hit all economies in the world. Some countries are going for more lockdowns, so setting lofty targets is not going to work if we do not have financial bandwidths to back them. The US may be trying to reshape the world in its image, but the political debate on the climate change fundamentally is about ‘action’. According to Global Performance Index published by Statista, Sweden (with 74.42 points), UK (69.66 points), Denmark (69.42 points), Morocco (67.59 points), and Norway (65.45 points) are the top five countries that have acted against climate change. Then comes Chile with 64.05 points. India is behind with 63.98 points is at seventh spot, but way ahead of France and the United States, the so-called leaders of climate action.
There are more interesting things. Do you know that where the greatest number of climate change deniers live? As per a media report, a survey was carried out in July 2020. Top four countries are Indonesia at 21%, United States at 19%, Saudi Arabia at 18%, and Egypt at 18%. The US was at the second spot with 19% of its citizens believing that climate change was not real, or at least the humans were not responsible for it. Five percent of Americans said that climate change was not even happening.
India’s Status
As for India, we have had a civilisational value of respecting nature and have already linked these values with our commitment towards sustainable economic development. India is happy to share that it is one of the few countries that are on track to meet their target under the Paris Agreement.
As per a media report, these are the targets set for 2030. India has pledged to cut its emissions by 33%-35%. It has already achieved its target by 21%. India promises to ramp up its non-fossil fuel electricity capacity to 40% by 2030. It is just 2% short of its target and has already achieved 38%. Since 2015, the number of people working in the renewable sector in India has increased fivefold. It is also worth mentioning that all political parties in India, irrespective of their ideology, recognise climate change as an issue of national interest. Several state governments have successfully implemented regional climate strategies. According to a report by KPMG, at least 10 Indian states have overwhelmingly invested in clean energy. These states include Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. All these 10 states have demonstrated that economic gain and climate action can go hand-in-hand. The bottom line is this — India is walking the talk in climate change. But before western nations ask others to upgrade their targets and enhance their ambition, they must get their own house in order. For the United States, credibility is more important. Whatever it has committed must be included in its domestic law so that the next administration does not walk off.
Experts say that reduction at present is only 1% but required to be 40% by 2030. The pollution has been created by a few, but the burden of reducing emissions must be shared by all the countries.
*The writer, Inspector General, BSF (Retd), is a Counter-Terrorism Analyst and Former Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis.
